The Dow rallied another 72 points today despite worsening economic data.
Fundamentals
First quarter GDP and jobless claims both turn out worse than consensus today as expected. Yes, as I have mentioned before, the US market is going through yet another period of short term economic data volatility. Economic data don't usually go all the way straight up or down. Like stocks, economic data also go upwards or downwards interspersed with short term periods of volatility and this is one of them. Q1GDP eased to 1.8% vs consensus of 2% and jobless claims made a sharp increase to 429K vs consensus of 390K. In fact, the 4 weeks moving average for jobless claims has been moving upwards these few weeks, scaring some investors back into bonds. Bond yields dropped across the board today as more investors moved back into the safety of bonds in the face of uncertain economic data.
Technicals
However, traders seem undaunted by the economic data and continued to push the market into new highs following the successful rebound off the 30/50MA line. Today's rally also pushed the market into a short term overbought condition and the volatility I spoke of may set in next week. Yes, we should see a slow sideways volatile week next week following such a strong weekly gain on uncertain economic data.
For now, the Dow remains in short term bull trend, intermediate term bull trend within a primary bull trend.
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Watch on Deck, Bulls Have the Ship!
The Dow rallied 115 points today as the market celebrates a slew of better than expected economic data.
Fundamentals
Market received a much needed boost today from better than expected Easter retail sales and Consumer Confidence. Both Store sales and Redbook reflects much better sales over the Easter period before market opened resulting in a strong opening which saw some profit taking. However, the bulls really took charge after the much better than expected Consumer Confidence data was released at 10am. Indeed, in an economy driven by consumers, these numbers really drive home a message; that consumers are still willing and able to spend. Just the message investors need to jump in on. However, the surge in sales is really just a seasonal one and with the current short term trend of deterioration in economic data, we might see some volatility and profit taking over the next few days as other economic data are released.
Technicals
A strong breakout candle with strong volume was created today, the kind that is needed to jump start a new leg for a new high. However, I would expect the market to move sideways for a few days following such a strong breakout. All in all, it is clear that the bulls are in charge and the market has returned to a general all out bull trend. Lets enjoy the ride!
For now, the Dow remains in short term bull trend, intermediate term bull trend within a primary bull trend.
My Market Analysis Sent Straight Into Your Email Daily For Only $5/Month! **My analysis will only be posted here once every other day.
Fundamentals
Market received a much needed boost today from better than expected Easter retail sales and Consumer Confidence. Both Store sales and Redbook reflects much better sales over the Easter period before market opened resulting in a strong opening which saw some profit taking. However, the bulls really took charge after the much better than expected Consumer Confidence data was released at 10am. Indeed, in an economy driven by consumers, these numbers really drive home a message; that consumers are still willing and able to spend. Just the message investors need to jump in on. However, the surge in sales is really just a seasonal one and with the current short term trend of deterioration in economic data, we might see some volatility and profit taking over the next few days as other economic data are released.
Technicals
A strong breakout candle with strong volume was created today, the kind that is needed to jump start a new leg for a new high. However, I would expect the market to move sideways for a few days following such a strong breakout. All in all, it is clear that the bulls are in charge and the market has returned to a general all out bull trend. Lets enjoy the ride!
For now, the Dow remains in short term bull trend, intermediate term bull trend within a primary bull trend.
My Market Analysis Sent Straight Into Your Email Daily For Only $5/Month! **My analysis will only be posted here once every other day.
Had a Happy Easter Weekend?
Welcome back and I hope all of you had a Blessed Easter weekend!
The market had a great run last week primarily bolstered by a general sense of optimism ahead of the Easter weekend as well as technical support around the 30/50MA level.
However, the fundamentals does appear to be shaky again as last Thursday's Jobless claims and Philley Fed both turned up worse than expected with Leading Indicators only marginally better. This could lead to a slower week this week as investors digest these mixed data along with the Fed's announcement on Wednesday.
On the technical front, the Dow is still a distance from being short term overbought and short term bullish momentum continue to rise. Market continues to be upside inclined for now even though it would be more reasonable to expect a few sideways days from here after such explosive moves. Its time to spot good entry points and profit from this new leg up.
My Market Analysis Sent Straight Into Your Email Daily For Only $5/Month! **My analysis will only be posted here once every other day.
The market had a great run last week primarily bolstered by a general sense of optimism ahead of the Easter weekend as well as technical support around the 30/50MA level.
However, the fundamentals does appear to be shaky again as last Thursday's Jobless claims and Philley Fed both turned up worse than expected with Leading Indicators only marginally better. This could lead to a slower week this week as investors digest these mixed data along with the Fed's announcement on Wednesday.
On the technical front, the Dow is still a distance from being short term overbought and short term bullish momentum continue to rise. Market continues to be upside inclined for now even though it would be more reasonable to expect a few sideways days from here after such explosive moves. Its time to spot good entry points and profit from this new leg up.
My Market Analysis Sent Straight Into Your Email Daily For Only $5/Month! **My analysis will only be posted here once every other day.
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