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Investors Cheered on Ben Speech

The Dow gained 160 points today as Fed chairman promises to keep expansionary monetary policy.

Fundamentals
Uncle Ben's promise to keep rates low in order to continue encouraging job growth before market open today pleased investors and drove index futures up high leading to a positive opening. Investors have been concerned about the Fed increasing rates after such strong job growth as reflected in the Jobs Reports so far and today's commitment to a low rate truly encouraged the market to come back in a big way. In fact, the SP500 made a new 4 year high today. Strangely though, unlike truly strong market days, bond yields remained relatively stagnant suggesting that investors have yet to reallocate back to equities strongly. Options traders also continued to keep total equities put call ratio above par in favor of put options trading. Would these investors and traders join in the fray over the next few days?

Technicals
The Dow completed its retest of the 13,000 points + 30MA today as it rebounded off the 30MA line intraday last Friday and resumed the bull trend strongly today, coinciding with the positive commitment from the Fed. It is amazing to see how fundamentals always coincide so nicely with technical setups which is what made me focus on technicals more than fundamentals. So far, the Dow has done everything I said it would to the dot, very classic bull trend behavior and setups. As the quarter ends, investors would once again be concerned about "Selling in May and Run Away" and with the market so overdue another intermediate correction, this could well be the final up leg before the volatility of an intermediate correction hits.

For now, the Dow turns all out bull trend.

Dow Retreats Despite Better Economic Data

The Dow retreats 78 points despite better than expected economic data.

Fundamentals
Both Jobless Claims and Leading Indicators turned in better than expected today, continuing the jobs recovery scenario laid down by this month's better than expected Jobs Report. However, market begun trading in the red and continued in the red throughout the session on lousy showing in the global markets prior to US market opening. Even though it was a negative day in the market, we did not see the kind of all out exodus back into bonds by investors as bond yields only dropped a tad across the board. This is perhaps due to the continued better economic numbers which should lead to better showing in the stock market really soon and investors really don't want to miss out on that. Options traders, however, are more pessimistic as they once again took total equities put call ratio above par in favor of put options trading.

Technicals
As expected and as mentioned in my email to paid subscribers yesterday, the Dow continued to test the 13,000 points for support. The positive thing at the 13,000 points level now is the fact that the 30MA is also around the area and the Dow is now once again sitting on top of its 30MA, which is a strong short term bullish support, and would have a good chance of rebounding from this area into new highs especially with the Dow now in short term oversold condition after three straight down days.

For now, the Dow remains in short term neutral trend, intermediate bull trend and primary bull trend.